For example, a decline in the value of the stock market causes households to rein in their spending, which causes businesses to lose sales, which causes the stock market to fall even further. If such cycles continue, our economic problems may become even more severe. The stimulus package is designed to break such cycles.
The package is desirable, even though the need for the stimulus and the effects of the stimulus are both not clear. At the moment, it is better to err on the side of overreaction, given the scope of our current problems and the potential for them to get even worse. Question: "Can the government go bankrupt? Could what is happening in Iceland happen to us?
Louis Answer: "It is possible, but not very likely. Countries don't go bankrupt normally. Their treasury department does. It would happen the same way it happened in Argentina: The government would be unable to fulfill the agreements that they had made, they would stop making payments on their interest and they would default on their debt. But the moon falling is about as likely as this happening. Despite the problems, we are still a very rich country.
We still have cars and other resources. We're not any dumber than we were before. We still have all those riches we had before. So by those standards we are doing well. It is the view right now that we have to spend a large amount of money right away because the ship is sinking. The idea that there is some solution that can be seen in the next six months is dangerous, but we won't go bankrupt unless people begin to panic.
Question: "It seems like TARP and the other measures taken so far haven't worked, at least not as well as they were expected to. What's happens if the stimulus plan fails? Is there a backup plan? How long will it take before we know whether it's working?
Expert: Mark Gertler, professor of economics, New York University Answer: "The scenario policymakers are trying to avoid is Japan of the s, where there was persistent stagnation for nearly a decade. Our policymakers are much more aggressive than the ones in Japan at the time, and they've learned a little bit from the Japanese experience, so it is very unlikely that we would have anything like the Great Depression.
But it's key that the political process not break down. If we have a political deadlock that limits any action from being taken, or more specifically, if the current stimulus package degenerates into a fight over different pork barrel projects, that could send us from a recession toward a depression.
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